Our gold forecast for 9-13 November 2026 starts with a market back above $4,100 an ounce. XAU/USD rallied last week as oil prices slumped on US-Iran diplomacy and Democrats won both chambers of Congress, before a strong US jobs report revived bets on a December Fed rate hike. Tuesday's US inflation data is the main test this week for anyone following or looking to trade gold CFDs: a firm reading could add to hike expectations, while a softer one could extend the rebound.
Watch the latest technical analysis from our in-house experts.
Key takeaways
- Spot gold traded near $4,104 on Monday 9 November, up about 0.8% on the day, according to Investing.com and FX Empire.
- Gold reached a weekly high of $4,147.02 on Thursday 5 November after the US midterm elections pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower, Kitco reported.
- The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 65,000 markets expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday 6 November.
- US October CPI is due on Tuesday 10 November at 13:30 UTC, ahead of the Fed's 8-9 December policy meeting.
Gold price today: where things stand
Spot gold was trading at about $4,104 an ounce as of 07:13 UTC on Monday 9 November, up around 0.8% on the day, according to FX Empire. Investing.com reported a similar level of $4,104.30 earlier in the Asian session.
Kitco data show spot gold opened last week at $3,875.21, close to its lowest level in a year, and climbed to a high of $4,147.02 on Thursday 5 November. It finished Friday near $4,070, a gain of roughly $194, or about 5%, for the week. Gold remains about 20% below where it stood before the US-Iran conflict began in late February, Investing.com noted.
What moved gold last week
Oil prices slumped on US-Iran diplomacy
Gold began the week near a one-year low after a sharp sell-off on Friday 30 October. On Monday 2 November, oil fell more than 6% as Iran and Qatar held talks aimed at ending the conflict, Reuters reported in a story published on Kitco. Lower crude eased fears that energy costs would keep inflation high, and spot gold rose more than 1% that day.
The oil slide continued through the week. Brent crude dropped 16%, its steepest weekly fall since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters reporting published on Investing.com. Cheaper energy matters for gold because it reduces the pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.
Democrats won control of Congress
The US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November handed Democrats control of both the House and the Senate, Kitco reported. Markets read the result as a check on spending and as a possible push towards ending the Iran conflict. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.88%, its lowest in nearly two months, and the dollar weakened.
Spot gold jumped about 3.5% on Wednesday 4 November to trade back above $4,000, Kitco reported. A sharp sell-off in US technology shares on Thursday 5 November, when the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, added demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and lifted it to its weekly high.
A strong jobs report revived Fed hike bets
On Friday 6 November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 expected, according to Kitco. Unemployment edged down to 4.1%, and August and September payrolls were revised up by a combined 84,000.
The data lifted the dollar and short-term yields and revived expectations that the Fed will raise rates again in December. Gold fell 0.4% on Friday, Investing.com reported. Losses were limited after the University of Michigan's preliminary November survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 4.3% from 4.7%, Kitco reported.
Gold forecast: what could move price this week
US inflation data and a busy schedule of Fed speakers dominate the week. Times below are in UTC; check our economic calendar for updates.
- Tue 10 Nov, 09:00 UTC: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook in London
- Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 UTC: US CPI, October (consensus not yet published; previous 3.7% year on year, core 2.6%)
- Tue 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on the economic outlook
- Wed 11 Nov: US Veterans Day holiday
- Thu 12 Nov, 13:30 UTC: US weekly jobless claims (previous 189,000)
- Fri 13 Nov, 13:30 UTC: US PPI, October (previous 6.3% year on year)
US CPI and the December Fed decision
The Fed raised rates in September and held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 28 October, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voting for an immediate hike. On Monday 2 November, CME FedWatch showed a 76.6% chance of a December increase, according to Reuters.
Headline inflation rose to 3.7% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Another firm October reading could strengthen the case for a hike, lifting yields and the dollar, which typically weighs on non-yielding gold. A cooler print, helped by October's fall in oil prices, could lower hike expectations and support gold.
Fed speakers and producer prices
Comments from Waller and Bowman after the CPI release will show how policymakers read the data. Friday's producer price index tracks costs earlier in the supply chain. Producer inflation reached 6.3% in September, according to Investing.com, so another strong reading could reinforce concerns that price pressures are spreading.
Other risks to watch
The US-Iran conflict remains the biggest unscheduled risk. President Trump told CNN on Sunday 8 November that further US attacks on Iran were "highly unlikely" to be needed if negotiations progress, OilPrice.com reported. However, shipping attacks in and near the Strait of Hormuz continued, and a comprehensive agreement has yet to materialise, according to Reuters. A breakdown in talks could push oil higher and revive inflation fears, while further equity market volatility could renew safe-haven demand.
Bullish and bearish scenarios
Bullish case for gold
If October CPI comes in softer than September's 3.7% and Fed speakers sound less certain about a December hike, Treasury yields and the dollar could fall, which could support gold. Continued inflows into gold ETFs, which attracted $2.7 billion in October according to World Gold Council data cited by FX Empire, could add to demand.
Bearish case for gold
If inflation stays firm and policymakers signal that a December hike is likely, higher yields and a stronger dollar could weigh on gold. A lasting US-Iran agreement could also reduce safe-haven demand. The World Bank named tighter US monetary policy as the biggest downside risk for gold, Kitco reported.
Gold FAQ
Why did gold go up last week?
Gold rose about 5% from its weekly open because oil prices fell sharply on US-Iran diplomacy, easing inflation fears, and the Democratic midterm win pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower. A sell-off in technology stocks on Thursday 5 November also lifted safe-haven demand, according to Kitco.
How does US inflation data affect the gold price?
Inflation data shapes expectations for Fed interest rates. Higher-than-expected inflation tends to raise the odds of rate hikes, which lifts yields and the dollar and can weigh on gold because it pays no interest. Softer inflation tends to have the opposite effect, which is why Tuesday's October CPI release is in focus.
Is the Fed going to raise rates in December?
Markets are leaning towards a hike. CME FedWatch showed a 76.6% probability of a December increase on Monday 2 November, according to Reuters, and Friday's strong jobs report revived those expectations. The Fed's final decision of the year is due at its 8-9 December meeting, and it will depend on incoming data.
What is the gold price forecast for 2026?
The World Bank's October Commodity Markets Outlook projects gold to average $4,600 an ounce in 2026, then $4,250 in 2027 and $4,000 in 2028, according to Kitco. These are averages for the full year, and the World Bank cited tighter US monetary policy as the main downside risk.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of the Kudo Research Team. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek independent advice before acting on the information. Kudo makes no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the content and assumes no liability for any losses. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.