Our gold price forecast for 2-6 November 2026 starts from a weak footing. Gold ended last week near $3,875 an ounce, its lowest level in more than a year, after the Federal Reserve held rates but two officials voted for a hike, strong US growth and inflation data lifted rate expectations, and a tech-led stock sell-off forced investors to sell. The US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November and October payrolls on Friday 6 November are this week's main tests for anyone looking to trade gold CFDs.
Watch the latest technical analysis from our in-house experts.
Key takeaways
- Spot gold fell about 3% last week to around $3,875 an ounce late on Friday 30 October, according to Kitco.
- The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 28 October, but Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 25 basis point hike.
- US GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday 29 October.
- US October nonfarm payrolls are due on Friday 6 November at 13:30 UTC, the key data test for December rate hike bets.
Gold price today: where things stand
As of around 21:00 UTC on Friday 30 October 2026, spot gold (XAU/USD) traded at $3,875.05 an ounce, according to Kitco, down roughly 3% from $3,995.81 a week earlier. Kitco reported a weekly high of $4,082.50, set shortly before the US stock market close on Wednesday 28 October, and a low of $3,870.25 late on Friday.
That low was gold's weakest level in more than a year. Kitco's Neils Christensen noted it was the lowest price since 6 October 2025. Investing.com reported that gold was on track for a second straight monthly decline in October.
What moved gold last week
The Fed held rates, but two officials voted for a hike
The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 28 October in a 10-2 vote. According to the Fed's statement, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, and the committee said that inflation "remains elevated".
Kitco reported that gold set its weekly high shortly before Wednesday's US stock market close, then slipped back towards $4,000 on Thursday. Investing.com, in a report carried by Yahoo Finance, said traders continue to expect a December hike as high energy prices complicate the fight against inflation. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.
Strong US growth and hotter inflation lifted hike bets
On Thursday 29 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that US real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second. September's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.6% from a year earlier, with core PCE at 3.1%, Kitco reported. Kitco said the dollar found support on Thursday, adding pressure on gold, which is priced in dollars.
Oil kept the inflation story alive. Kitco reported that Brent crude settled at $117.64 a barrel on Friday after an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving it up about 13.6% in October. "The rule in the markets is that you are supposed to buy the inflation and oil right now is the inflation," Blue Line Futures' Philip Streible told Kitco.
A tech-led stock sell-off triggered forced selling
Kitco reported that the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, its largest daily drop since June, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.9% after Intel fell nearly 29% on weak profit guidance. Concerns over returns on artificial intelligence investment drove selling across markets, and investors sold gold to raise cash.
Spot gold dropped about 3.5% on the day, Kitco said, even though the 10-year Treasury yield fell towards 4.93%. In a scramble for cash, gold can trade like any other asset that is easy to sell rather than as a safe haven.
Gold price forecast: what could move price this week
This week brings US politics, jobs data and a Bank of England decision. Follow every release on our economic calendar.
- Mon 02 Nov, 15:00 UTC: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, October (previous 54.5)
- Tue 03 Nov, 15:00 UTC: US JOLTS job openings, September (previous 7.08 million)
- Tue 03 Nov, all day: US midterm elections
- Wed 04 Nov, 15:00 UTC: US ISM Services PMI, October (previous 54.9)
- Thu 05 Nov: Bank of England interest rate decision (Bank Rate currently 3.75%)
- Fri 06 Nov, 13:30 UTC: US nonfarm payrolls, October (previous 29,000) and unemployment rate (previous 4.2%)
US nonfarm payrolls could reset December hike bets
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the monthly count of US jobs added outside farming, are due on Friday 6 November at 13:30 UTC, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule. Our trading glossary explains this and other market terms. September's report showed just 29,000 jobs added, against an Investing.com forecast of 89,000, with unemployment at 4.2%.
Britannia Global Markets' Neil Welsh told Kitco that a weak reading "could substantially reduce expectations of a December rate hike", which would ease one source of pressure on gold. A strong report could do the opposite.
US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November
Analysts surveyed by Kitco flagged the vote as a key risk. investingLive's Adam Button expects gold to trade lower, citing the midterms and "the potential resumption of the Iran war", while Zaye Capital Markets' Naeem Aslam told Kitco the elections could affect the outlook. A result that shifts expectations for US fiscal policy, trade or the dollar could move gold in either direction.
ISM surveys and the Bank of England
The ISM manufacturing and services surveys, where readings above 50 signal expansion, will show whether strong third-quarter momentum carried into October. Firm readings could add to hike expectations, while a sharp slowdown could ease them. The Bank of England decides on rates on Thursday 5 November, with Bank Rate at 3.75%, and its view on inflation feeds into the wider global rate picture gold is trading on.
Other risks to watch
The Middle East remains the main unscheduled risk. Kitco reported tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz last week, and higher oil has recently weighed on gold by lifting inflation and rate expectations rather than boosting safe-haven demand. Kitco's weekly survey found 10 of 16 Wall Street analysts expect lower prices this week, while 53% of retail respondents expect gains.
Bullish and bearish scenarios
Bullish case for gold
If October payrolls disappoint and the ISM surveys slow, markets could scale back bets on a December Fed hike. That could weaken the dollar and lower yields, which would support gold. Calmer stock markets could also end the forced selling seen on Friday. Goldman Sachs estimated that central banks bought 79 tonnes of gold in August, according to Investing.com, a source of demand that could help cushion declines.
Bearish case for gold
If payrolls come in strong and inflation worries persist, traders could add to December hike bets, lifting the dollar and making non-yielding gold less attractive. Further gains in oil linked to the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation expectations high. Another sharp equity sell-off could also prompt more selling of gold to raise cash, as it did on Friday 30 October.
Gold FAQ
Why is gold going down?
Gold is falling mainly because markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. Strong US growth, September PCE inflation of 3.6% and higher oil prices have lifted hike expectations, which supports the dollar and raises the cost of holding gold. A tech-led stock sell-off on Friday 30 October also triggered forced selling, pushing gold to its lowest level in more than a year.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
No decision has been made, but futures markets still reflect substantial expectations of a December hike, according to Kitco. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack already voting for a hike. The October jobs report on 6 November and upcoming inflation data will shape the decision.
How do the US midterm elections affect gold?
Elections can move gold through their effect on expected fiscal policy, the dollar and Treasury yields. The US midterms take place on Tuesday 3 November 2026, and analysts surveyed by Kitco flagged the vote as a risk for gold this week. The direction of any move will depend on how markets read the result.
Is gold still a safe haven?
Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven, but it does not always rise during market stress. On Friday 30 October, gold fell about 3.5% while US stocks dropped, as investors sold it to raise cash. Central bank buying remains a longer-term support, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
Trade gold with Kudo
Gold is available to trade as a CFD on Kudo, where you can go long or short on the price. You can open a live account or practise first on a free demo account.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of the Kudo Research Team. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or professional advice. Readers should seek independent advice before acting on the information. Kudo makes no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the content and assumes no liability for any losses. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.