Our gold price forecast for 12-16 Oct 2026 centres on one question: will US inflation push the Federal Reserve into another rate hike? Spot gold gained about 1.3% last week to around $4,194 an ounce, Reuters reported, recovering from a two-month low on Wednesday 7 October as the US dollar and Treasury yields eased. The main test this week is the US September consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday 14 October, one of the last major releases before the Fed meets on 27-28 October.
Watch the latest technical analysis from our in-house experts.
Key takeaways
- Spot gold rose 1.5% on Friday 9 October to $4,194.36 an ounce, putting it on track for a weekly gain of about 1.3%, according to Reuters.
- Gold hit a two-month low on Wednesday 7 October as the dollar strengthened and US 10-year Treasury yields reached two-decade highs.
- CME FedWatch showed an 83% chance of the Fed holding rates in October as of Monday 12 October, up from 51% a month earlier, FXStreet reported.
- US September CPI is due on Wednesday 14 October at 12:30 UTC, followed by producer prices on Thursday 15 October.
- Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is due in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at 03:30 UTC on Friday 16 October.
Gold price today: where things stand
As of 03:20 UTC, Monday 12 October 2026, XAU/USD was trading near $4,205 an ounce, according to FXStreet, holding most of Friday's rebound. Spot gold was at $4,194.36 at 19:29 GMT on Friday 9 October, up 1.5% on the day, Reuters reported.
December gold futures settled at $4,216.30 on Friday, up $54.00 or 1.30% on the week, according to Investing.com data. The futures traded between $4,091.20 and $4,233.70 over the week, while FXStreet put spot gold's two-month low at $4,067. US bond markets are closed on Monday for Columbus Day, so liquidity may be thin. For live prices, see Kudo's page to trade gold CFDs.
What moved gold last week
Fed rate hike bets lifted yields and the dollar
Gold fell to a two-month low on Wednesday 7 October as a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields weighed on the metal, Reuters reported. US 10-year yields hit two-decade highs that day, and FXStreet noted the dollar had climbed to an 18-month peak. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding it.
The backdrop is a Fed that is tightening policy again. According to Reuters, the Fed voted unanimously in September to raise its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point. On Thursday 8 October, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the central bank will need to hike again to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
Trump's Iran comments cooled oil prices
The tone shifted on Friday 9 October. President Donald Trump said Washington was having "productive discussions" with Iran and that no attack was planned before the 3 November midterm elections, FXStreet reported. Oil fell as Middle East supply worries eased, and spot gold rose 1.4% by 08:42 GMT, according to Reuters.
Lower oil prices matter for gold because they ease inflation fears and reduce pressure on the Fed to keep hiking. Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com, told Reuters this "strengthens the case for a Fed hold this month", weighing on the dollar and pulling yields back from their highs.
Bargain hunters returned as October hike odds faded
By Friday, CME FedWatch showed traders pricing only a 19% chance of an October hike, although they still saw an 84% probability of at least one 25 basis point increase by December, Reuters reported. Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, said gold was attracting "bargain hunting at the lows". She added that a further Fed hike may already be priced in.
Gold price forecast: what could move price this week
This week's economic calendar is dominated by US inflation data and Fed commentary. Key scheduled events:
- Mon 12 Oct: US Columbus Day holiday, US bond markets closed
- Tue 13 Oct, 07:45 UTC: Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussion on AI, New Delhi
- Wed 14 Oct, 12:30 UTC: US CPI, September (consensus 0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, previous 0.4% and 3.4%)
- Wed 14 Oct, 12:30 UTC: US core CPI, September (consensus 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, previous 0.3% and 2.4%)
- Wed 14 Oct, 18:00 UTC: Fed Beige Book
- Thu 15 Oct, 12:30 UTC: US producer price index (PPI), September
- Fri 16 Oct, 03:30 UTC: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Bangkok
- Fri 16 Oct, 12:30 UTC: US import prices, September (consensus 0.9% m/m, previous 0.7%)
- Fri 16 Oct, 13:15 UTC: US industrial production, September (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.0%)
US CPI and the Fed's October decision
CPI is the week's main event for gold. FXStreet described it as one of the last major releases before the Fed's 27-28 October meeting. TD Securities expects core inflation to moderate to 0.2% month on month, leaving the annual core rate around 2.4%, but flagged upside risks from discretionary services. A cooler print would support the case for a Fed hold, which could weigh on yields and the dollar and support gold. A hot print could revive October hike bets. Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit, told Reuters that persistent inflation could push the Fed into a steeper hiking cycle, which he said could send gold lower.
Warsh, PPI and the Beige Book
Fed commentary will shape how markets read the data. Chairman Warsh speaks after both CPI and the PPI release on Thursday 15 October, so firm producer prices would give him more to address. Any signal that the Fed sees inflation as persistent could lift December hike expectations. The Beige Book on Wednesday 14 October adds the Fed's regional read on prices.
Other risks to watch
Geopolitics remains a two-way risk. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia's King Khalid International Airport was attacked again, a day after 12 people were killed in alleged Houthi strikes, and Trump said he was considering joining Saudi retaliation, FXStreet reported. Iran's Mohsen Rezaei said Washington had accepted some of Tehran's conditions but called its response "inadequate". Oil also fell on Trump's claim of a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire", which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was not aware of. Escalation could lift safe-haven demand, but higher oil could also feed inflation fears and Fed hike bets.
Bullish and bearish scenarios
Bullish case for gold
If September CPI comes in at or below consensus and Fed speakers sound patient, markets could firm up bets on an October hold and trim December hike expectations. That could pull Treasury yields and the dollar lower, reducing the cost of holding gold. Middle East escalation without a sharp oil spike could add safe-haven support.
Bearish case for gold
If CPI or PPI runs hotter than expected, markets could price back an October hike and a steeper path for rates. Higher yields and a stronger dollar could then weigh on gold, as they did on Wednesday 7 October. A hawkish message from Chairman Warsh on Friday 16 October could have a similar effect.
Gold FAQ
Why did gold fall to a two-month low last week?
Gold hit a two-month low on Wednesday 7 October because a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the metal, according to Reuters. US 10-year yields reached two-decade highs that day as markets priced further Fed rate hikes. It rebounded on Friday 9 October as oil and yields eased.
How does US CPI affect the gold price?
CPI shapes expectations for Fed policy, which drives Treasury yields and the dollar. A hotter reading tends to raise rate hike bets, lifting yields and making non-yielding gold less attractive. A cooler reading can do the opposite. September CPI is released on Wednesday 14 October at 12:30 UTC, with consensus at 3.6% year on year.
Why do Fed rate hikes weigh on gold?
Gold pays no interest, so when the Fed raises rates, bonds and cash become more rewarding by comparison. Higher rates also tend to support the dollar, in which gold is priced. Reuters reported that the Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September, and traders still see an 84% probability of another hike by December.
Is the Fed expected to hike rates in October 2026?
Markets currently lean towards a hold. CME FedWatch showed an 83% chance of no change at the 27-28 October meeting as of Monday 12 October, up from 51% a month earlier, FXStreet reported. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem has said another hike will be needed, so the CPI data could still shift those odds.
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